Much like Scott Podsednik in left field, Brian Anderson had his share of troubles in 2006. Brian posted .225/.290/.359 line in 365 AB. After a slow start, Anderson had to split time in center with utility man Rob Mackowiak. Anderson's VORP was -13.3. Although Brian showed little to nothing in his first full season at the dish, he was very good in the field. Although that can't offset his tribulations at the plate, his defense was certainly above average. His FRAR was 26, two above the average for CF, 24.
There are many things to consider when evaluating Anderson's future. Firstly, will Brian be put in a position to succeed? Ozzie Guillen has been rough on Brian, splitting his time with Mackowiak. It showed a lot when Anderson was benched in the second game of the season. This is just one example in a series of mishandlings by Guillen. He simply refuses to develop young talent the way he should. He is incredibly impatient and bullheaded (see: Sean Tracey, Brandon McCarthy, Brian Anderson). He seems to only like fast guys who can't hit (see: Jerry Owens, Juan Pierre).
That being said, what can be done to improve upon such a weak position? I say, stay with Anderson. BP is very high on him in their five year forecast, expecting very good numbers by his second full year. They see a steady progression from year to year. Their forecasts for Jerry Owens and Ryan Sweeney were not so optimistic. BP projects Jerry Owens to be out of baseball in four years, and Sweeney to be a Juan Pierre caliber hitter without the speed. Anderson was even likened to former Pirates outfielder Andy Van Slyke for his tools and maturing baseball skills.
If Anderson can manage to get on base 33% of the time (optimistic after last season), he should get almost every start. Unfortunately, Guillen seems more enamored with speed and contact than a well rounded ballplayer coming into his own. If the Sox can upgrade offensively in LF and at short, they can afford a Cesar Izturis like performance from the 25 year old Anderson. You can bat him ninth, and hope that the three headed monster of Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, and Paul Konerko can come close to last year's production. As long as the older, worse black hole (Juan Uribe) is cut loose, Anderson will look just fine in 2007 and beyond.
We've got two positions filled, Ryan Church in left and Anderson in center. Let's just pencil Dye into right field and move onto 3b next time.
Monday, November 27, 2006
Sunday, November 26, 2006
Position by Position Analysis: Left Field
The 2006 Chicago White Sox featured 30 year old speedster Scott Podsednik in left field. Pods posted a line of .261/.330/.353 in 524 AB. He posted an OPS+ of 76 and an EqA of .250. Obviously, from these stats it is obvious Podsednik was an enormous failure in LF. Even when weighing the more basic stats, he was not much better. He stole 40 bases in 59 attempts, good for an average of 67%. He also struck out 96 times against 54 walks.
Ok, enough thrashing of Pods, what can Kenny Williams conceivably do about LF in a market where overrated players like Gary Matthews Jr. and Gil Meche are raking in large amounts of cash? He can buy low.
There are many options out there, but I am most intrigued by Ryan Church. The 28 year old outfielder has succeeded at all levels in MiLB, and had a very successful age 27 season in Washington. Church posted a .276/.366/.526 line to go alongside an OPS+ 128 and an EqA of .308. Church had a .9 IsoD, significantly better than other outfielders like Chone Figgins and Carl Crawford, both of whom have been bandied about for the vacant leadoff and LF position. Jim Bowden, being the plethora of ignorance and incompetence that he tends to be, will most likely look to either move or cut Church in favor of a more athletic outfielder like Nook Logan. The guys over at Gotham Baseball even speculated that Bowden was looking at troubled uber-prospect Lastings Milledge to join an already crowded outfield.
Some feel it is time for the Ryan Sweeney era to begin in 2007, but I feel he can afford to spend one more year in AAA. He is only 21, and still has some power and patience to develop. Hopefully he can contribute on opening day 2008, or as soon as July 2007.
My suggestion: pick up Ryan Church and annoint him the starting LF for 2007. He has the patience, the power, the numbers, the fielding, everything. He can leadoff with that kind of OBP, or bat in the seven, eight, or nine hole. Church can most likely be had for the perpetually underappreciated Heath Phillips. If Church were to falter or injure himself, some combination of Rob Mackowiak, Ross Gload, Pablo Ozuna and Josh Fields could perform at or slightly above league average. I know as a major market ballclub, we should expect better than league average at every position, but with the market as inflated as it is right now you have to be fiscal at some positions. Plus, I'd bet some serious mulah that Church will outperform Alfonso Soriano over the course of 162 games.
What to do with Podsednik? Cut your losses and try to pick up a single A RP with decent upside. Some teams may still value him for his speed (I'm looking at you Colorado Rockies).
Church has also played a little center field, which happens to be the next position I will examine. See you soon.
Ok, enough thrashing of Pods, what can Kenny Williams conceivably do about LF in a market where overrated players like Gary Matthews Jr. and Gil Meche are raking in large amounts of cash? He can buy low.
There are many options out there, but I am most intrigued by Ryan Church. The 28 year old outfielder has succeeded at all levels in MiLB, and had a very successful age 27 season in Washington. Church posted a .276/.366/.526 line to go alongside an OPS+ 128 and an EqA of .308. Church had a .9 IsoD, significantly better than other outfielders like Chone Figgins and Carl Crawford, both of whom have been bandied about for the vacant leadoff and LF position. Jim Bowden, being the plethora of ignorance and incompetence that he tends to be, will most likely look to either move or cut Church in favor of a more athletic outfielder like Nook Logan. The guys over at Gotham Baseball even speculated that Bowden was looking at troubled uber-prospect Lastings Milledge to join an already crowded outfield.
Some feel it is time for the Ryan Sweeney era to begin in 2007, but I feel he can afford to spend one more year in AAA. He is only 21, and still has some power and patience to develop. Hopefully he can contribute on opening day 2008, or as soon as July 2007.
My suggestion: pick up Ryan Church and annoint him the starting LF for 2007. He has the patience, the power, the numbers, the fielding, everything. He can leadoff with that kind of OBP, or bat in the seven, eight, or nine hole. Church can most likely be had for the perpetually underappreciated Heath Phillips. If Church were to falter or injure himself, some combination of Rob Mackowiak, Ross Gload, Pablo Ozuna and Josh Fields could perform at or slightly above league average. I know as a major market ballclub, we should expect better than league average at every position, but with the market as inflated as it is right now you have to be fiscal at some positions. Plus, I'd bet some serious mulah that Church will outperform Alfonso Soriano over the course of 162 games.
What to do with Podsednik? Cut your losses and try to pick up a single A RP with decent upside. Some teams may still value him for his speed (I'm looking at you Colorado Rockies).
Church has also played a little center field, which happens to be the next position I will examine. See you soon.
Greetings Sox Fans
I am an 18 year old White Sox fan from Rockford, Illinois. I will hopefully update this daily with musings on the White Sox from various publications, as well as my own opinions. As far as my baseball background goes, I do not play, and haven't played since I was 10 years old. But in the last few years I have become more and more enamored with the sport, mainly from reading stuff like BP, Rob Neyer articles, and Moneyball. I fall on the extreme SABR side of the baseball spectrum. Hopefully I can inject some objective analysis about an organization and a fanbase that is very old school in philosophy.
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